Your risk report says “high flood exposure”. Your committee wants a number in euros.
Climate VaR turns physical and transition risk into a single euro figure, per asset and per portfolio, by decade out to 2099. Most tools hand you a hazard score and leave the rest to you.
28 EU Taxonomy-aligned hazardsMoody’s climate data2030 to 2099, by decade
What sits behind the number
Physical climate risk28 hazards
VulnerabilitySensitivity + adaptive capacity
Climate VaRDamage-rate modelling
Transition overlayCRREM misalignment
Trusted by
Everyone can tell you the building floods
Hazard data has got cheap. You can pull a flood map for nothing. The hard part is turning that exposure into a euro figure that holds up when the investment committee starts asking questions.
“We have a hazard map. We do not have a line item we can put in the model.”
Head of Risk, institutional investor
“Physical risk sits in one report and transition risk in another, so nobody can say which one costs us more.”
Director of Sustainability, fund manager
“The valuer asked what we assume about 2040. We had a colour, not a number.”
Investment Manager, logistics portfolio
Not measuring it does not make it go away
Buyers, lenders and valuers already price this into deals. If you have not put a number on it, you are negotiating against someone who has.
10-20%
Brown discount visible in office and retail pricing right now. Buyers apply it whether or not you have done the analysis.
JLL, 2023
3.2% → 10.9%
Retrofit IRR modelled on energy savings alone, then modelled again with avoided value loss included. Leave the downside out and you will under-fund the fix every time.
Building Atlas comparison, 2025
EU Taxonomy
The adaptation criteria ask for a documented climate risk and vulnerability assessment. Assets that would otherwise qualify get rejected on paperwork.
EU Taxonomy Climate Delegated Act, Appendix A
How the number gets built
Most providers give you the first layer and stop there. You only get a euro figure if all of it runs on the same asset record.
01
Hazard exposure
Location-based exposure to the 28 hazards the EU Taxonomy lists, including heat stress, flooding, wildfire, storm, water stress and subsidence. We model them on IPCC RCP scenarios using Moody’s climate database and report by decade out to 2099.
02
Vulnerability
Exposure on its own says nothing about damage. We score each asset for sensitivity and adaptive capacity using its typology, construction, age, systems and whatever protection is already in place. Two buildings on the same flood plain rarely come out the same.
03
Financial impact
Damage-rate modelling turns hazard and vulnerability into expected annual loss and Value at Risk, in euros, for each asset in each decade under each scenario.
04
Transition overlay
We add carbon misalignment against CRREM pathways on top of the physical picture, so stranding risk and physical risk end up in the same table.
Methodology
Hazard dataMoody’s
ScenariosIPCC RCP
BasisLocation-based
Horizons2030 to 2099, per decade
DeliveryTypically 24 hours
What you get in the report
01
A euro figure
Expected annual loss and Value at Risk in euros, per asset and aggregated to portfolio.
Outcome. Put climate risk into the investment model as a line item.
02
Physical and transition in one frame
Both risk types come back in the same currency and on the same timeline.
Outcome. You can say which one costs more, and when, without reconciling two reports.
03
Decadal time horizons
Results from 2030 to 2099, broken out by decade, under multiple RCP scenarios.
Outcome. Line the analysis up with your actual hold period.
04
Portfolio comparability
Standardised indicators across every asset, regardless of country or typology.
Outcome. Rank assets, plan the order of work, and build the case if something has to go.
05
EU Taxonomy adaptation evidence
The assessment comes out in the format the adaptation criteria ask for, with the supporting documentation attached.
Outcome. The paperwork stops being the reason an asset fails.
06
Resilience upside modelling
Model the effect of adaptation measures on the VaR figure before committing capital.
Outcome. Show what resilience spend buys, in the same currency as the risk.
Put a number on your ten most exposed assets
Send an address list. We will return asset-level Climate VaR figures, typically within 24 hours, and walk you through the methodology.
