“From EPBD policy to numbers lenders trust.” - Wolfgang Lukaschek, CEO, Blue Auditor
Real‑estate value in Europe is changing fast. The EPBD recast raises the bar for energy performance. At the same time, insurers and lenders are pricing climate risk more strictly. Together, these forces decide how easy a building is to refinance, insure, or sell. This article explains, in clear terms, how Climate Value‑at‑Risk (Climate VaR) turns that pressure into one number you can use to plan.
What Climate VaR means
Climate VaR is a euro estimate of potential value loss linked to climate factors. We look at two parts. The first is transition risk: policy rules, carbon costs, and market expectations about building performance (for example, whether the asset is on a credible decarbonisation path such as CRREM). The second is physical risk: floods, heat and other hazards that affect operations and insurance.
The result is a single number per asset and a rolled‑up number for the portfolio. It also shows the drivers behind that number so managers can see what to fix first.
Why EPBD 2026 matters
EPBD 2026 is not just a date on a regulation timeline. It is when many owners must prove that their assets have a conversion plan: how they will move from today’s performance to compliant performance. Assets without that plan face tighter lending terms, rising insurance costs or limits, and weaker buyer interest. In short: value risk.
“Regulatory pressure tells us what must happen; markets decide how much value you lose if you wait. With EPC‑to‑ESG in under five minutes, we put hard numbers on both.” – Wolfgang Lukaschek CEO, Blue Auditor
How Blue Auditor quantifies the risk
We start with the data you already have: EPCs, metering, floor area, equipment and lease dates. We convert EPCs into ESG metrics, energy demand, CO₂ intensity, and an estimated stranding year against CRREM. Then we estimate the practical works required to close the gap: envelope, plant, controls and operational changes, with timing and cost. Finally, we express the impact in euros so decision‑makers can compare options on one scale: how much Climate VaR each measure removes and when it pays back.
Blue Auditor has completed 7,000+ EU Taxonomy assessments. We are headquartered in Vienna with offices in Berlin and Milan, and a team of about 60 experts speaking 18 languages, set up to support European portfolios at scale.
A short example
A portfolio worth €600m shows about €50m of Climate VaR at the start. Most of that risk sits in a dozen buildings. By sequencing façade upgrades, electrifying heat, and improving controls, timed to lease and lifecycle moments, the number falls to roughly €24m. Nothing exotic: just the right measures, in the right order, explained in one page for credit and insurance teams.
What to do now
The immediate objective is to establish a defensible plan with clear numbers and timing:
The takeaway
You cannot control policy or weather. You can control how quickly you see their impact in euros and how precisely you act. Climate VaR makes the conversation simple for boards, lenders and tenants alike. Focus on the small set of assets that drive most of the risk, treat CAPEX as value protection, and, in many cases, value creation and keep the documentation lender‑ready throughout.